BTC · daily read

Market Confluencer

Is now a better or worse than median moment to deploy capital — and if it isn't clean, which inputs are fighting?

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Accumulationcheap, washed-out frothy, expensiveDistribution
Each shape = one metric, placed by where today sits in its own history. Grey = no direction asserted.
Movement over — the comet tail shows where it sat then.
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What this is

A slow, structural read on where Bitcoin sits — built for capital-deployment decisions made a handful of times a year, not for trading. It shows disagreement rather than hiding it behind a single score.

How to read it

Every metric is placed by its percentile within its own history: left = accumulation (historically cheap/washed-out), right = distribution (frothy/expensive). A metric's colour follows the same scale. When a band's inputs fight, it strains and names the outliers.

The faint comet trail behind each mark is where it sat 30, 90 or 365 days ago — so you can see which way it's drifting.

Two metrics — volume and gold — have no single honest direction, so they sit grey and uncounted.

Sources

The metrics, in plain English

Valuation — is it cheap?

MVRV Z-score
Market value vs the average price coins were last moved at, standardised. Low = BTC is historically cheap relative to what holders paid.
Mayer Multiple
Price ÷ its 200-day average. Under ~1 sits below the yearly trend — historically a cheaper zone.
200-week MA ratio
Price ÷ its 200-week (~4-year) average. A long-cycle floor that has marked major bottoms.
Realized-price ratio
Price ÷ the aggregate cost basis of all coins. Near or below 1 means the market is close to break-even.

Participation — is capital here?

Total daily volume
How much BTC changes hands per day — a read on real activity. Spikes at both tops and bottoms, so it's shown grey.
Open interest
Total value of open BTC futures — a gauge of leverage. High = speculative froth.
ETF net flow
Net daily dollars into (or out of) US spot Bitcoin ETFs — institutional demand.
Stablecoin supply
Total dollars parked in stablecoins — "dry powder" waiting on the sidelines.

Liquidity — the backdrop

DXY (US Dollar Index)
Strength of the US dollar vs major currencies. A strong dollar is usually a headwind for BTC.
US 10-year yield
The 10-year Treasury rate — a proxy for how tight financial conditions are. Higher = tighter.
US M2
The US money supply. More money in the system tends to support risk assets like BTC. Global M2 tracks it closely but has no clean free source, so this is the US figure.
Gold
The gold price — a macro cousin. Its link to BTC flips with the regime, so it's shown grey.

Sentiment — the crowd

Fear & Greed
A 0–100 crypto mood index. Low = fear — a contrarian buy at extremes.
Funding rate
The fee perpetual-futures longs pay shorts. Negative or low = a bearish crowd (contrarian).
Long/short ratio
How many traders are positioned long vs short. Crowded shorts can be contrarian-bullish.