BTC · daily read

Market Confluencer

Is now a better or worse than median moment to deploy capital — and if it isn't clean, which inputs are fighting?

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Where are we? Charts →
Accumulationcheap, washed-out frothy, expensiveDistribution
Each shape = one metric, placed by where today sits in its own history. Grey = no direction asserted.
Movement over 90 days
The comet tail shows where each metric sat then — drag to sweep, and watch one extend then pull back as you pass its turning point. Each band’s tally reads today’s position; the slider moves only the tails.
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What this is

A slow, structural read on where Bitcoin sits — built for capital-deployment decisions made a handful of times a year, not for trading. It shows disagreement rather than hiding it behind a single score.

How to read it

Every metric is placed by where it sits within its own history — how high or low it is versus everything it's ever been (0 = its lowest ever, 100 = its highest): left = accumulation (historically cheap/washed-out), right = distribution (frothy/expensive). A metric's colour follows the same scale. When a band's inputs fight, it strains and names the outliers.

One exception: Valuation compares against its last 4 years (one Bitcoin cycle), not all of history. Each cycle's peaks run lower than the last, so against 2013's extremes today would always look cheap and a new top might never read expensive.

The faint comet trail behind each mark is where it sat over your chosen lookback — drag the slider up top to sweep from a week out to years, and watch which way each metric is drifting. Where a metric's history is shorter than the lookback, its tail truncates at a neutral data wall rather than pretending to a move it can't show.

Two metrics — volume and gold — have no single honest direction, so they sit grey and uncounted.

Sources

The metrics, in plain English

Valuation — is it cheap?

MVRV Z-score
Market value vs the average price coins were last moved at, standardised. Low = BTC is historically cheap relative to what holders paid.
Mayer Multiple
Price ÷ its 200-day average. Under ~1 sits below the yearly trend — historically a cheaper zone.
200-week MA ratio
Price ÷ its 200-week (~4-year) average. A long-cycle floor that has marked major bottoms.
Realized-price ratio
Price ÷ the aggregate cost basis of all coins. Near or below 1 means the market is close to break-even.

Participation — is capital here?

Total daily volume
How much BTC changes hands per day — a read on real activity. Spikes at both tops and bottoms, so it's shown grey.
Open interest
Total value of open BTC futures — a gauge of leverage. High = speculative froth.
ETF net flow
Net daily dollars into (or out of) US spot Bitcoin ETFs — institutional demand.
Stablecoin growth
Year-over-year growth in stablecoin supply — the rate new "dry powder" is arriving on the sidelines. Read as growth, not level, because the level only ever accretes.

Liquidity — the backdrop

DXY (US Dollar Index)
Strength of the US dollar vs major currencies. A strong dollar is usually a headwind for BTC.
US 10-year yield
The 10-year Treasury rate — a proxy for how tight financial conditions are. Higher = tighter.
US M2 growth
Year-over-year growth of the US money supply. More money entering the system tends to support risk assets like BTC; contraction is a headwind. Read as growth rather than level, since the level only ever rises. Global M2 would fit BTC better but has no clean free source, so this is the US figure.
Gold
The gold price — a macro cousin. Its link to BTC flips with the regime, so it's shown grey.
Fed net liquidity
The Fed's balance sheet minus its reverse-repo facility and the Treasury's cash account — the liquidity actually loose in markets. More is supportive for risk assets; less is a headwind. Counted alongside the others: it's confirmed to move independently of M2 (over 20+ years they don't track, and lately they've diverged).

Sentiment — the crowd

Fear & Greed
A 0–100 crypto mood index. Low = fear — a contrarian buy at extremes.
Funding rate
The fee perpetual-futures longs pay shorts. Negative or low = a bearish crowd (contrarian).
Long/short ratio
How many traders are positioned long vs short. Crowded shorts can be contrarian-bullish.